A couple of months after the Shelton et al article in the Lancet about whether the AIDS Pandemic had peaked or not, UNAIDS was literally forced to admit that the pandemic had peaked! However, HIV epidemics in different regions and populations mostly peaked during the 1980s and 1990s – UNAIDS is just wakening up to this fact!

My analysis of global HIV incidence and prevalence trends indicate that HIV incidence of new infections and prevalence of persons living with HIV infection peaked at different times in different HIV epidemics in different global regions – but all, including SSA peaked by the late 1990s The reasons for these differences include: the time HIV was introduced into a population or area; the time epidemic HIV transmission may have started; and the primary mode of HIV transmission in any specific epidemic. In most developed countries annual HIV incidence in MSM and IDU epidemics peaked by the mid-to-late 1980s; HIV prevalence peaked by the late 1980s to the early 1990s; and annual AIDS cases and deaths peaked by the mid-1990s. In SSA, HIV incidence peaked by the mid-1990s and HIV prevalence peaked by the year 2000.